Cambodia's economy is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, as regional tensions, rising fuel costs and disruptions affecting key domestic industries weigh on the country's economic outlook. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Aun Pornmoniroth announced the revised projections during a meeting with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation in Phnom Penh on November 3, highlighting challenges facing tourism, real estate, construction and agriculture while identifying manufacturing as a continuing source of economic growth.
Key Facts
2026 GDP growth forecast: 4.0%.
2027 GDP growth forecast: 4.8%.
Main government representative: Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aun Pornmoniroth.
IMF delegation leader: Cambodia Mission Chief Kenichiro Kashiwase.
Key economic pressures: Geopolitical tensions, higher fuel costs, online scam crackdowns and the Cambodian-Thai border closure.
Affected sectors: Real estate, construction, tourism and agriculture.
Manufacturing outlook: Garment and non-garment production expected to maintain positive momentum.
Government measures: Duty exemptions on fuel and electrical imports and targeted fiscal interventions.
Upcoming IMF engagement: 2027 Article IV consultation.
Cambodia Revises Economic Growth Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
Aun Pornmoniroth said Cambodia's economy is expected to expand by 4.0% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, reflecting downward revisions amid escalating regional and global economic pressures.
He announced the projections during a meeting with an IMF delegation led by Cambodia Mission Chief Kenichiro Kashiwase.
According to the Finance Minister, several external and domestic developments have combined to affect Cambodia's economic outlook.
These include geopolitical tensions, rising fuel prices, nationwide crackdowns on online scam networks and the closure of the Cambodian-Thai border.
The combination of these factors has created additional pressure on economic activity, particularly in sectors dependent on international trade, tourism, investment and regional supply chains.
Real Estate, Construction, Tourism and Agriculture Face Pressure
The Finance Minister identified real estate, construction, tourism and agriculture as among the sectors affected by the current economic challenges.
Real estate and construction face pressure amid weaker economic conditions and uncertainty affecting investment and development activity.
Tourism has also been affected by regional disruptions and broader challenges facing international travel demand.
Agriculture faces additional risks from the El Niño weather phenomenon, which could create further uncertainty for agricultural production.
The developments highlight the interconnected nature of Cambodia's economy, where external shocks can affect multiple industries and influence employment, investment and domestic demand.
Manufacturing Expected to Support Economic Expansion
Despite the weaker overall outlook, the government expects manufacturing to maintain positive momentum.
Both garment and non-garment manufacturing are expected to contribute to economic expansion over the medium term.
The manufacturing sector remains an important part of Cambodia's export-oriented economy, with production activity supporting employment, industrial development and international trade.
The expected performance of both segments could help offset some of the pressure affecting other sectors.
However, the extent of manufacturing's contribution will depend on external demand, production costs, investment conditions and the stability of international supply chains.
Government Introduces Measures to Ease Economic Pressure
Aun Pornmoniroth said the Royal Government has introduced prudent and targeted interventions to protect vulnerable populations and maintain socioeconomic stability.
Among the measures highlighted were duty exemptions on fuel and electrical imports, intended to help curb inflationary pressures and ease living costs.
He also said the government was adopting a growth-supportive fiscal stance to maintain economic stability while responding to the challenges facing the country.
These measures form part of the government's response to rising costs and external economic uncertainty.
The minister emphasised the importance of protecting vulnerable groups while supporting broader economic activity.
IMF Recognises Cambodia's Economic Resilience and Export Performance
The IMF delegation, led by Cambodia Mission Chief Kenichiro Kashiwase, commended Cambodia's economic resilience and solid export performance despite persistent global inflation.
Kashiwase also reaffirmed the IMF's commitment to providing technical assistance in several areas of economic and financial management.
The areas include:
Domestic revenue mobilisation.
Medium-term expenditure frameworks.
Financial-sector surveillance.
Virtual asset regulation.
The technical assistance is expected to support Cambodia's economic policy and institutional development ahead of the IMF's upcoming 2027 Article IV consultation.
The Article IV process provides a framework for the IMF to assess a country's economic and financial developments and discuss policy priorities with national authorities.
Angkor Times Analysis: Economic Diversification and Resilience Become More Important
The revised growth projections highlight the pressure that regional disruptions and global economic uncertainty can place on Cambodia's growth model.
The projected 4.0% expansion in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027 indicate that the government expects economic activity to remain positive, although at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Several issues deserve attention.
First, reducing exposure to external shocks. Cambodia's dependence on international trade, regional tourism and imported energy makes the economy sensitive to geopolitical developments, border disruptions and global price movements. Diversifying markets and strengthening domestic supply chains could help reduce some of these vulnerabilities.
Second, supporting affected industries. Real estate, construction, tourism and agriculture face different challenges and require sector-specific responses. Measures that improve business confidence, support employment and maintain access to markets will be important.
Third, strengthening manufacturing competitiveness. The expected positive momentum in garment and non-garment manufacturing offers an important source of economic support. Expanding industrial capabilities, improving productivity and attracting investment into higher-value production could strengthen the sector's longer-term contribution.
Fourth, maintaining fiscal and financial stability. Targeted support can help households and businesses manage economic pressure, but public finances and financial-sector risks also require careful monitoring.
The IMF's planned technical assistance in revenue mobilisation, expenditure planning, financial surveillance and virtual asset regulation is relevant to these broader priorities.
Ultimately, Cambodia's ability to sustain growth will depend on how effectively it manages immediate economic disruptions while strengthening the foundations for a more diversified and resilient economy.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is Cambodia's economic growth forecast for 2026?
Cambodia's economy is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2026, according to Deputy Prime Minister Aun Pornmoniroth.
2. What is the growth forecast for 2027?
The government projects economic growth of 4.8% in 2027.
3. Why has Cambodia lowered its growth forecasts?
The Finance Minister cited geopolitical tensions, rising fuel costs, crackdowns on online scam networks and the closure of the Cambodian-Thai border.
4. Which economic sectors are facing pressure?
The affected sectors identified by the government include real estate, construction, tourism and agriculture.
5. Which sector is expected to support economic growth?
Garment and non-garment manufacturing are expected to maintain positive momentum and support medium-term economic expansion.
6. What measures has the government introduced to ease economic pressure?
The government highlighted duty exemptions on fuel and electrical imports, alongside targeted interventions and a growth-supportive fiscal stance.
7. What support is the IMF providing to Cambodia?
The IMF has committed to technical assistance in domestic revenue mobilisation, medium-term expenditure frameworks, financial-sector surveillance and virtual asset regulation.
8. What is the IMF's 2027 Article IV consultation?
It is an IMF process for reviewing Cambodia's economic and financial developments and discussing relevant policy issues with the authorities.